How to build a 13-week cash flow forecast in Sri Lanka

Last verified against the primary sources on 15 October 2026.

A 13-week rolling cash flow forecast shows your bank balance week by week: opening balance, expected receipts, known payments including statutory ones, and the closing balance. It shows the weeks where the balance falls below the level you need, and the timing mismatches that most often catch Sri Lankan SMEs out. You can build one in a spreadsheet or try our cash flow forecast tool.

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Why cash flow forecasting matters for Sri Lankan businesses

Profit and cash are not the same thing. Many profitable businesses run short of cash because income and payments do not line up. Three factors make this sharper in Sri Lanka.

Seasonal revenue patterns

Many Sri Lankan industries are seasonal. Tourism-linked businesses on the south and west coasts peak from about November to April. Retail spikes around the Sinhala and Tamil New Year in April and the December holidays. Agricultural processors follow harvest cycles. In each case the business has to cover fixed costs in the low months from the surplus of the high months. A 13-week forecast makes that cycle visible before it becomes a crisis.

VAT timing gaps

A VAT-registered business pays the VAT for each month by the 20th of the following month, and files its return, monthly or quarterly depending on its taxable period, by the last day of the month after the period ends [1]. VAT collected in one month stays in the bank until the next. For a high-volume business that looks like spare cash. A forecast ring-fences the VAT so it is not spent as working capital.

Excess input VAT is different. Since SVAT was abolished on 1 October 2025, the refund route, with refunds within 45 days of the return due date, is limited to eligible exporters, approved projects and suppliers to specified projects [2]. A business outside that route that carries a large input VAT balance, such as an importer or a domestic manufacturer, should model the credit as a reduction in future VAT payments, not as a cash receipt. Even an eligible exporter should treat refund timing as uncertain.

EPF and ETF payment scheduling

Employers pay EPF at 12% of total earnings from their own funds plus the 8% deducted from the employee, and ETF at 3%, all due by the last day of the following month [3] [4]. The ETF Board asks for payment by the last working day [5], so plan for that. On a monthly payroll of LKR 1,000,000, EPF and ETF together come to LKR 230,000 a month, which has to sit in the right week of the forecast. Paying late adds a surcharge that starts at 5% of the contributions for up to 10 days and rises in steps to 50% [3] [4].

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If borrowing bridges the forecast deficit, test loan repayments against available cash flow before treating the facility as affordable.

When a forecast supports an investment discussion, separate the cash schedule from the assumptions behind a business valuation.

Building your 13-week rolling forecast: step by step

Step 1. Set your opening balance. Add up the current balance across all your bank accounts, or track each account separately if that helps.

Step 2. Map your income. Enter each expected receipt in the week you expect the cash:

• Customer payments on existing invoices (use the due date, or your actual collection lag if customers pay late)
• Recurring income from standing orders or retainers
• Expected new sales receipts (be conservative in the first forecast)
• Loan drawdowns, investor payments or other financing

Step 3. Schedule your payments. Enter all known outflows by week:

• Supplier payments
• Salaries and wages (in the week of payment, not the period of work)
• EPF and ETF for the previous month (by the last working day of the month)
• VAT for the previous month (by the 20th)
• Loan repayments
• Rent, utilities and other fixed overheads
• Director drawings
• Capital expenditure

Step 4. Set your cash safety threshold. Decide the minimum balance you need at all times to cover unexpected outflows, such as a few weeks of fixed costs, and mark every week that falls below it.

Step 5. Review the 13 weeks. For each week, look at the opening balance, net flow and closing balance. For the weeks below your threshold, work out what would close the gap: collecting a customer payment sooner, agreeing later terms with a supplier, or drawing on a facility.

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Common patterns the forecast will surface

The VAT bulge. Many businesses running a forecast for the first time find their balance looks healthy mid-month but carries VAT that leaves on the 20th of the next month. The forecast separates the underlying position from the VAT float.

The month-end double hit. A business that pays salaries at the end of each month also pays the previous month's EPF and ETF at the end of the month. Both leave in the same week.

The post-festive dip. After the April New Year and the December to January holidays, many businesses face higher supplier payments for restocking, slower receipts and a backlog of deferred payments at the same time. A forecast shows this weeks in advance, which is enough time to act.

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Rolling the forecast forward

A 13-week forecast only has value if you update it. Roll it forward every week:

• Remove the week just passed
• Add a new week 13
• Replace the forecast figures for the past week with actuals
• Reforecast any weeks where expectations have changed

Keep the old versions so you can compare actuals with forecasts and see how accurate your forecasting is.

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When a 13-week forecast is not enough

If your forecast keeps showing negative weeks, or the business has multi-currency flows, large seasonal working capital needs or a capital raise coming up, a 13-week forecast is not enough on its own. You will need a 12-month model updated monthly, with base, best and stress cases. If the forecast shows a shortfall within the next four weeks and you have no plan to close it, act now: short-notice cash problems are manageable when caught early.

Talk to us. If you want monthly management accounts and a rolling cash forecast prepared for you, see our accounting services and get in touch through our contact page.

This guide is general information on the law as at 15 October 2026 and is not advice on your specific situation.

Reconcile the forecast to the working-capital movements behind a cash shortfall, not just the profit forecast.

References

1. Inland Revenue Department. Tax Calendar 2026, VAT payment and return dates. https://www.ird.gov.lk/en/publications/Tax%20Calendar_Documents/Tax_Calendar_2026_E.pdf . Primary. Accessed 15 October 2026.

1. Inland Revenue Department. Notice PN/VAT/2025-01 (Revised), VAT (Amendment) Act No. 4 of 2025: SVAT abolished from 1 October 2025 and the risk-based refund scheme. https://www.ird.gov.lk/en/Lists/Latest%20News%20%20Notices/Attachments/677/PN_VAT_2025-01_11042025_E.pdf . Primary. Accessed 15 October 2026.

1. Central Bank of Sri Lanka. Employees' Provident Fund Act, No. 15 of 1958 (reprint), ss.10 and 16. https://www.cbsl.gov.lk/sites/default/files/cbslweb_documents/laws/acts/en/epf_act.pdf . Primary. Accessed 15 October 2026.

1. Employees' Trust Fund Board. Employees' Trust Fund Act, No. 46 of 1980, ss.16(1) and 27. https://etfb.lk/wp-content/uploads/2021/03/ETF-Act.pdf . Primary. Accessed 15 October 2026.

1. Employees' Trust Fund Board. Payment of contributions. https://etfb.lk/payment-of-contributions/ . Primary. Accessed 15 October 2026.